Virological evidence of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 in a resource-limited setting (preprint)

Ecuador was an early COVID-19 hotspot with substantial COVID-19-mortality. In developed countries, low socioeconomic status is associated with COVID-19 infection and low compliance with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). However, if NPI were successful in resource-limited settings with high human mobility and informal labour is still unclear. We performed a retrospective observational molecular and serological study of Ecuadors reference laboratory. We tested 1,950 respiratory samples from COVID-19 surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 and 12 respiratory viruses using RT-PCR, characterized 642 SARS-CoV-2 genomes, and examined SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in 1,967 samples from patients with fever in Ecuadors reference laboratory during 2020-2021. Molecular and serological data were compared to NPI stringency in Bayesian, maximum-likelihood and modelling frameworks. SARS-CoV-2 (Pearson correlation test; r=-0.74; p=0.01) and other respiratory viruses (r=-0.68; p=0.02) detection correlated negatively with NPI stringency. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence increased from <1% during February-March 2020 to 50% within 6 weeks and plateaued after NPI implementation. Decrease of effective reproduction number <1 and antibody reactivity over time suggested intense SARS-CoV-2 transmission during pandemic onset, subsequently limited by NPIs. Phylogeographic analyses revealed that travel restrictions were implemented late not preventing 100 near-parallel SARS-CoV-2 introductions, and implementation of NPIs modified SARS-CoV-2 geographic spread by restricting recreational activity. NPIs stringency correlated negatively with the number of circulating SARS-CoV-2 lineages (r=-0.69; p=0.02). Virological evidence supports NPIs restricting human movement as an effective public health tool to control the spread of respiratory pathogens in resource-limited settings, providing a template for emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants and future epidemics.

Genomic determinants of Furin cleavage in diverse European SARS-related bat coronaviruses (preprint)

The furin cleavage site in SARS-CoV-2 is unique within the Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SrC) species. We re-assessed diverse SrC from European horseshoe bats and reveal molecular determinants such as purine richness, RNA secondary structures and viral quasispecies potentially enabling furin cleavage. Furin cleavage thus likely emerged from the SrC bat reservoir via molecular mechanisms conserved across reservoir-bound RNA viruses, supporting a natural origin of SARS-CoV-2.

Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 transmission lineages in Ecuador (preprint)

Characterisation of SARS-CoV-2 genetic diversity through space and time can reveal trends in virus importation and domestic circulation, and permit the exploration of questions regarding the early transmission dynamics. Here we present a detailed description of SARS-CoV-2 genomic epidemiology in Ecuador, one of the hardest hit countries during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. We generate and analyse 160 whole genome sequences sampled from all provinces of Ecuador in 2020. Molecular clock and phylgeographic analysis of these sequences in the context of global SARS-CoV-2 diversity enable us to identify and characterise individual transmission lineages within Ecuador, explore their spatiotemporal distributions, and consider their introduction and domestic circulation. Our results reveal a pattern of multiple international importations across the country, with apparent differences between key provinces. Transmission lineages were mostly introduced before the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), with differential degrees of persistence and national dissemination.

Diagnostics and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Western Africa: An observational laboratory-based study from Benin (preprint)

Information on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) spread in Africa is limited by fragile surveillance systems and insufficient diagnostic capacity. We assessed the coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19)-related diagnostic workload in Benin, Western Africa, characterized SARS-CoV-2 genomes from 12 acute cases of COVID-19, used those together with public data to estimate SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in a Bayesian framework, validated a widely used diagnostic dual target RT-PCR kit donated to African countries, and conducted serological analyses in 68 sera from confirmed COVID-19 cases and from febrile patients sampled before the predicted SARS-CoV-2 introduction. We found a 15-fold increase in the monthly laboratory workload due to COVID-19. Genomic surveillance showed introductions of three distinct SARS-CoV-2 lineages. SARS-CoV-2 genome-based analyses yielded an R0 estimate of 4.4 (95% confidence interval: 2.0-7.7), suggesting intense spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Africa. RT-PCR-based tests were highly sensitive but showed variation of internal controls and between diagnostic targets. Commercially available SARS-CoV-2 ELISAs showed up to 25% false-positive results depending on antigen and antibody types, likely due to unspecific antibody responses elicited by acute malaria according to lack of SARS-CoV-2-specific neutralizing antibody responses and relatively higher parasitemia in those sera. We confirm an overload of the diagnostic capacity in Benin and provide baseline information on the usability of genome-based surveillance in resource-limited settings. Sero-epidemiological studies needed to assess SARS-CoV-2 spread may be put at stake by low specificity of tests in tropical settings globally. The increasing diagnostic challenges demand continuous support of national and supranational African stakeholders. FundingThis work was supported by the Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH.